Multiple mainstream media sources including CBS and Yahoo!News have now reported Russian Army long-range artillery and rocket launchers moving into firing positions along the Ukrainian border as of the afternoon of Feb.14th. Early morning videos posted to social media have also shown Russian tanks and armored units in the streets of Tomarovka, in Russia’s Belgorod region, approximately 27km from the border with Ukraine moving toward the border crossing at Velyka Pisarivka. Satellite imagery has also confirmed a massive buildup of Russian aircraft, troops, and the establishment of a field hospital nearby.
According to CBS News, Biden National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin could give the orders for an invasion “essentially at any time.”
“We have seen over the course of the past 10 days a dramatic acceleration in the build-up of Russian forces and the disposition of those forces in such a way that they could launch a military action essentially at any time,” Sullivan said. “They could do so this coming week, but of course, it still awaits the go-order” from Putin.
An unnamed “US Official” reported to the outlet that “Some Russian units have left their assembly areas — the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos — and are beginning to move into “attack positions,” according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.” The anonymous source further elaborated that “Russia now has 80% of the forces it will need to launch a full-scale invasion, and the rest are en route. More than 100,000 Russian troops are amassed along Ukraine’s borders — to the east, in Russia, and the north, in Belarus.”
T-80U tanks and BMP-2 IFVs of the 4th Kantemirovskaya Tank Division (1st Guards Tank Army) in Tomarovka, Belgorod Oblast. Video uploaded on February 14. pic.twitter.com/i3p54X3Fmx
— Status-6 (@Archer83Able) February 14, 2022
The Center for Information Resilience out of London has released an independently verified map of Russian Troop movements near the Ukrainian frontier and the strategic picture is highly disturbing.
New satellite images gathered by MAXAR and published by The Indian News have shown massive buildups of forward-deployed forces in the last 48 hours. Reportedly more than 180,000 Russian troops have now partially encircled Ukraine to the North, East, and South in Belarus, Russia, and Crimea respectfully.
New Satellite Pics Show Build-Up Of Russian Jets, Troops Near Ukraine.#Russia #Ukraine #RussiaUkraineCrisishttps://t.co/g9cdSIj68O pic.twitter.com/yTbdbA5GLA
— The Indian News (@TheIndianNewsIn) February 15, 2022
Russian Gov Claims Troops Are Beginning To Withdraw – NATO Sees No Evidence
Russian propaganda from RT and the Russian foreign ministry have claimed that they are in the process of withdrawing their forces after participating in an “exercise”. However, these alleged withdrawals have yet to manifest, and footage presented by RT has been shown to be misleading.
We have geolocated part of the footage claiming to show the withdrawal of Russian forces to Bakhchisaray train station, Crimea [180KM from mainland Ukraine]. The view can be seen here on Yandex Street View: https://t.co/4972Z1zitQhttps://t.co/mj4QHuLLQf pic.twitter.com/c6fIzn8aV5
— Centre for Information Resilience (@Cen4infoRes) February 15, 2022
Reuters has reported that contrary to Russian claims of de-escalation, NATO has yet to see any real action, “British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “the intelligence that we’re seeing today is still not encouraging”, and Ukraine said the reported pullback needed to be seen to be believed.”
Interfax Ukraine reported Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressing doubts as well.”If we see a withdrawal, we will believe in a de-escalation,”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, appeared to leave room for diplomacy but stressed that there has not been any real sign of rapprochement from Moscow.
“There are signs from Moscow that diplomacy should continue. This gives grounds for cautious optimism. But so far we have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground from the Russian side,”
The situation is fluid though, and as Axios observed: the Russian Duma (parliament) voted to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in the breakaway eastern region of Ukraine which the Kremlin could attempt to use as a thin veneer to legitimize moving forces into these territories under the guise that they are no longer a part of Ukraine similar to what they did in Crimea in 2014. The resolution is sitting on Putin’s desk waiting for his signature.
