As of late, Trump has been taking more than a few shots, but he finally got some good news.
Even with the shots he has taken, he is leading Joe Biden by five points, up at least one point from most recent polls, in a mock 2024 election.
That margin is likely far better than five percent in terms of the electoral college.
They Got It Right
The big story of the 2016 election was how wrong the polling was, right?
WRONG! The pollsters were actually dead on.
Hillary was winning major polls by roughly 3 to 3.5 points on average.
Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 percent, which is close enough to the national polling average, which is how those polls were conducted (and when you factor in the margin of error).
Donald Trump won because of the states he won and where his votes were centered.
Trump is up 47.9 to 42.6 percent in the most recent Trafalgar Group poll.
Here is why this is huge for Trump.
We know Biden will carry the blue states like New York and California, but where will the rest of his votes come from for electoral votes.
Based on those numbers, Trump would dominate the traditional red states and most of the battleground states.
While I think it would be closer than the 2016 electoral vote, Trump, with that kind of polling lead, would likely run right over Joe Biden in an election.
I have to admit, I was off on this for quite some time because I was not considering where the votes would come from and I was only looking at the margin in polling and wondering how Trump could only be three or four points ahead of Biden.
If he has that kind of lead, knowing that Trump would be down by as many as eight million votes between California and New York alone, if these numbers stay consistent, I don’t see any way Biden could accumulate enough electoral votes to stay in the White House.
I still say someone like DeSantis would win by a bigger margin, but barring legal problems, I now believe that Trump would likely win this election.
Source: Breitbart
